Key Takeaways
- President Javier Milei holds a commanding 45% intention-to-vote share for the 2027 presidential election, according to a recent national poll by the consulting firm QSocial.
- The incumbent president maintains a massive 20-point advantage over his closest potential rival, Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof, who garners 25% support, suggesting a potential first-round victory.
- Despite being halfway through his term, 41% of respondents favor continuing the majority of Milei’s policies, signaling sustained public appetite for the radical ‘deep change’ agenda he campaigned on.
Although President Javier Milei has only completed the first half of his four-year mandate, a new national survey analyzing the 2027 electoral scenario suggests the current administration is in a stunningly dominant position. The poll, conducted by the firm QSocial, reveals an overwhelming lead for the Libertarian leader, placing him 20 points above his nearest potential competitor, Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof.
This research, accessed by *Clarín*, confirms recent trends showing robust public backing for the current government’s direction. QSocial, a firm with over 15 years of experience in political and business consulting, presented an extensive report based on a nationwide survey of 1,111 cases, maintaining a margin of error of +/- 3%.
The most striking finding comes from the direct question regarding presidential intent for 2027. When respondents were asked which candidate they would vote for, Milei secured 45% of the vote against Kicillof’s 25%. Such a margin would allow the president to secure re-election outright in the first round, circumventing the need for a runoff. Trailing significantly behind were non-Kirchnerist Peronist Juan Schiaretti (4%) and the Left Front’s Nicolás del Caño (2%).
Beyond candidate preference, QSocial explored public sentiment toward policy continuity—a crucial measure of how deeply Milei’s mandate for “deep change” has resonated. The question asked whether the next government should “continue the majority of policies initiated by the current government,” “change the majority,” or “continue some and change others.”
The results present a paradoxical but powerful political reality: 41% of respondents opted to “continue the majority of policies,” versus 33% who demanded “change the majority.” Another 22% sought a mixed approach. Analysts suggest this high percentage favoring “continuity” is, in fact, a sustained demand for the continuation of the foundational “change” that propelled Milei into power in 2023.
The survey figures provide essential context for the current political climate in Argentina. The strong performance by Milei and the perceived threat of a sweeping “violet wave”—referencing the color of the Libertarian movement—is already altering the political calculations of provincial authorities. Reports suggest that many governors are now contemplating advancing their local election dates in an attempt to secure re-election before the national political momentum, currently favoring Milei, reaches a fever pitch in 2027.
While Milei’s overall dominance is clear, the survey does register subtle shifts within the political bloc. A closer look at the data by political affiliation indicates a modest leakage of support among former Macrista voters—those who backed the previous administration of Mauricio Macri—who are now moving toward “blank” or “don’t know” options rather than fully committing to Milei. However, this internal fragmentation does little to diminish the president’s overwhelming national advantage projected for the next electoral cycle. These numbers underscore the persistent societal demand for radical transformation that defined the 2023 election and appears to be solidifying the political landscape for the remainder of the decade.