Key Takeaways
- A recent national poll indicates that the Peronist-Kirchnerist bloc and Governor Axel Kicillof have overtaken President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party in voter preference for the first time this year.
- The shift in public opinion is attributed to economic stagnation and corruption scandals affecting the current administration.
- While it’s still early for the 2027 elections, the poll highlights a challenging period for Milei’s government in the eyes of the public.
President Javier Milei, initially perceived as on a clear path to re-election following his 2025 legislative victories, is now facing a notable shift in voter sentiment. A new poll reveals that for the first time this year, the Peronist-Kirchnerist coalition and Governor Axel Kicillof are polling ahead of Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party. This development comes amidst persistent economic struggles and a series of corruption allegations plaguing the national government, which appear to be impacting public perception.
The poll, conducted by Trends, shows a significant turnaround from just a month prior. In February, the same firm indicated that La Libertad Avanza held a substantial 15-point lead over the Peronist-Kirchnerist bloc (43% to 28%). However, the latest findings from March place the main opposition force in front by a narrow 2-point margin (37% to 35%).
This electoral shift is also evident in hypothetical run-off scenarios. Previously, Milei consistently led Governor Kicillof in head-to-head matchups, with a 14-point advantage in January (49% to 35%). The most recent survey now shows Kicillof edging ahead of the president, with 45% of voter preference compared to Milei’s 42%.
The Trends survey, which interviewed 2,000 individuals nationwide between March 29th and 31st with a margin of error of +/- 2.2%, also captured a decline in public optimism and approval for the current administration. Negative sentiments regarding the country’s future have increased significantly, with 51% expressing negative views compared to 33% positive, a reversal from February when positive and negative outlooks were balanced at 41% each.
Furthermore, public perception of the government’s direction has deteriorated. In February, 45% believed the government was on the right track, while 48% disagreed. By March, these figures shifted to 37% and 57%, respectively. A critical area of concern highlighted by the poll is inflation. When asked if they believed the government was successfully reducing inflation, 69% of respondents answered “no,” a 15-point increase since the beginning of the year.
These broader indicators of public discontent are directly reflected in the electoral intentions for the 2027 presidential elections. The significant drop in support for La Libertad Avanza, transforming a 15-point lead into a 2-point deficit within a month, underscores the challenges facing the Milei administration. The data suggests that negative sentiment towards the government is now being consolidated by the opposition, a factor that has not been as pronounced in previous polling periods. While it remains over a year until the next presidential elections, and the primary election system (PASO) is yet to be confirmed, these poll results signal a complex political moment for the Casa Rosada and a potential recalibration of the electoral landscape.
Read More: